Hormuz is the oil story everyone is watching. Bab el-Mandeb is the one quietly rewriting freight and insurance bills for anything that still uses the Red Sea.

Yemen’s internationally recognised government announced a major campaign on Monday to retake territory held by the Iran-backed Houthis. President Rashad al-Alimi said government forces would press the offensive “until the country is liberated,” per ABC News reporting of his televised address. The same day, the Houthis said they had fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area. There was no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabia.

This is not a local civil-war footnote. Last month the Houthis seized the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and about 150 kilometres of Red Sea coast, ABC News reported, giving them leverage over the southern exit of the Red Sea, the shipping lane between Asia and the Mediterranean via Suez. On Monday, Yemen’s pro-government Saba news agency said government forces had retaken the Dhubab district near the strait and taken control of Mocha city west of Taiz. At the same time, ABC, citing military sources, reported the Houthis had gained ground near Taiz over the previous 48 hours. Newsquawk’s market desk noted that government forces were also claiming control of Bab el-Mandeb itself, and that the Houthis denied it. Contested claims are the point. Markets do not wait for a clean map before they reprice risk.

Who pays first

When a choke point is contested, prices tend to move before volumes do. Newsquawk made the same point on Monday: Bab el-Mandeb claims have historically hit freight and insurance costs more than outright barrels. War-risk insurance is the early bill. Reuters reported on Sept. 24 that quoted war-risk premiums for Saudi-linked tankers calling at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea port, had risen to around 3% of a vessel’s value, up from under 1% in early July, before London’s marine insurance market marked those waters high-risk. For Saudi ports farther south, quotes could run as high as 7%, close to Hormuz transits at 6% to 9%. Tankers with no Saudi connection were typically paying 0.2% to 0.3%, because the Houthis have said they will target only Saudi-linked ships.

In dollars, Reuters put war-risk cover for a Yanbu voyage at about $3 million, and about $7 million from southern Saudi ports or through Hormuz, up from at least $100,000 before the war. Those are broker quotes; there is no public data on agreed rates. Corey Ranslem, CEO of maritime security firm Dryad Global, told Reuters that Bab el-Mandeb tanker transits were down to “only a handful of vessels per day.”

That matters because of what Yanbu is supposed to be. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea is the kingdom’s Hormuz bypass, and Reuters reported it had been diverting around 4 million barrels a day, about 4% of global supply. Red Sea war risk is the reason that bypass is no longer cheap. The pipeline itself is in question again: on Monday, AFP sources said it had stopped pumping after a new attack, while Bloomberg sources said it was flowing normally.

What it means for you

If you fill a tank, buy imported goods, or live anywhere that prices off global freight, treat Bab el-Mandeb as a separate risk from Hormuz, not a synonym. Hormuz is about crude leaving the Gulf. Bab el-Mandeb is about whether the Red Sea and Suez lane stays commercially usable, and right now the bill falls hardest on Saudi barrels. When the main bypass for roughly 4% of world supply costs nearly as much to insure as the choke point it was built to avoid, that cost does not stay with the shipper. It shows up in delivered fuel prices first, and in everything that moves by ship after that.

Signal to watch: confirmation of who actually holds Dhubab, Mocha, and the strait approaches, not just rival claims, plus whether Yanbu war-risk quotes stay near 3% or climb toward Hormuz levels. If government forces retake the coast and premiums ease, the other choke point likely cools. If the Houthis hold or expand their shoreline control, Red Sea risk likely stays a surcharge on Saudi oil and on the freight that prices off it.

Sources

• ABC News (Reuters): Yemen’s government declares major military campaign against Houthis (Oct. 5, 2026)
• Al Jazeera live: Yemen armed forces say they have taken control of Mocha city (Oct. 5, 2026)
• Newsquawk: Crude reverses earlier downside after Saudi attack halts pipeline (Oct. 5, 2026)
• Reuters: Saudi oil export strategy hits new hurdle as Red Sea insurance costs soar (Sept. 24, 2026; also carried by Insurance Journal)